Bombardier Flipping

the forecast

43

Bombardier Business Aircraft | Market Forecast 2011-2030

Asia Pacific (continued)

Japan’s situation appears fragile: after a 2010 rebound with 4.0% growth, prospects for 2011 only amount to 1.2%, even though reconstruction efforts will start to kick in during the second half of this year. Many economists expect Japan's long-term GDP growth to be below 1% per year. Led by the Australian economy, Oceania grew by 2.5% during 2010. Australia is doted of a large pool of natural resources and is benefiting from its geographical proximity to China and other Growth Markets. The country has recently been dubbed "The next Golden State" by The Economist. Over the next 20 years, Asia Pacific is predicted to grow at 3.7% per year, according to IHS Global Insight. From a business aviation market stand point, while Oceania is a typical maturing market, the Japanese and Emerging Asia markets remain relatively under developed. As the forecast business jet penetration curve shows, fleet per 100 million population is expected to grow from 34 to 100 over the next 20 years. Despite hurdles such as the high handling costs across the region’s airports, the Asia Pacific region's current

Fleet Evolution Forecast - Asia Pacific Fleet, Deliveries, Retirements; 2010-2030

120

605

60

1,145

370

660

350

Fleet 2010 Deliveries Retirements Fleet 2020 Deliveries Retirements Fleet 2030

Sources: Ascend, Bombardier forecast. Excludes Very Light Jet and Large Corporate Airline categories.

business jet fleet of 350 aircraft is expected to grow at a CAGR of 6% over the next 20 years, and to account for 1,145 aircraft in 2030. 975 deliveries are expected in the Asia Pacific region throughout the next 20 years, 370 aircraft between 2011 and 2020, and 605 aircraft between 2021 and 2030.