Bombardier Flipping

the forecast

36

Bombardier Business Aircraft | Market Forecast 2011-2030

Russia & CIS

Business Jet Penetration Forecast - Russia & CIS Fleet per capita vs. GDP per capita, 1960-2030

1,000

2030

2010

100

Recovering at a relatively moderate pace from a deep recession suffered in 2009, the Russian economy remains overly dependent on energy export revenues to drive domestic growth. Energy prices have risen steadily since mid-2009. They are expected to remain elevated in the near-to-medium term, particu- larly in light of popular unrest in the Middle East and North Africa. Exports have been driving the recovery, while domestic demand has remained slack. Consumer confidence has bounced back and household consumption has been adding some momentum to the economic recovery. Business confidence is improving as well, as shown by the strong growth in investment activity. Nevertheless, there are offsetting factors in the Russian economic environment

10

Fleet per 100 Million Population (Log Scale)

Actual Forecast

1960

1

1,000

10,000

100,000

GDP per Capita (USD, Log Scale)

Sources: Ascend, IMF, IHS Global Insight, UN Population Project, Bombardier forecast. Includes very light jets.

Capital, increased government spending before parliamentary elections in the end of the year and a presidential vote in early 2012 may boost inflation. The number of billionaires in Russia & CIS amounted to 116 in 2010, up 61% from 72 in 2009, according to Forbes. A total of 50 billionaires live in Moscow, making it the city with the second- highest billionaire population after New York.

that will keep growth in the moderate pace. Commercial lending rates are still relatively high and banks are leery of a new wave of loan defaults. Future growth will be influenced by WTO accession and the nation's newly cemented energy exporting ties to China. According to Moscow investment bank Renaissance