Bombardier Flipping

the forecast

35

Bombardier Business Aircraft | Market Forecast 2011-2030

Latin America (continued)

Fleet Evolution Forecast - Latin America Fleet, Deliveries, Retirements; 2010-2030

The economy of the region has traditionally been driven by exports of manufactured goods, agricultural products and natural resources, such as oil and minerals. Tourism is also an important driver, notably for Mexico and the Caribbean. According to Forbes, Latin America experi- enced a jump in its number of billionaires, going from 36 in 2009 to 53 in 2010. Mexico ranks above Brazil and Argentina in sales of luxury brands in Latin America and is the home of the world's wealthiest individual in 2011: Carlos Slim Helu. According to IHS Global Insight, in 2011, Latin America’s growth is predicted to be at 4.6%. Over the 20-year forecast period, the Latin American economy is forecast to grow, on average, by 4.3% per year. Business aviation has a long and well-estab- lished presence in Latin America, particularly in Mexico and Brazil. The success of business aviation in the region is partly due to the poor scheduled airline service in the area. Latin America shows a noticeably high proportion of business jets in the Light category. In late 2010, the region had one of the oldest busi- ness jet fleets in the world, with an average age of 18.5 years (versus 15.7 years world- wide). As a result, the region should account for a significant amount of replacements.

430

1,200

360

925

2,735

1,965

1,400

Fleet 2010 Deliveries Retirements Fleet 2020 Deliveries Retirements Fleet 2030

Sources: Ascend, Bombardier forecast. Excludes Very Light Jet and Large Corporate Airline categories.

As the forecast business jet penetration curve shows, fleet per 100 million population is expected to grow from 315 to 500 over the next 20 years. Latin America is forecast to take delivery of 2,125 business jets in the period from 2011 to 2030, with 925 aircraft between 2011 and 2020 and 1,200 deliveries between 2021 and 2030. The 2010 fleet of

1,400 business jets will grow to 2,735 aircraft in 2030 resulting in a CAGR of approximately 3%.