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the forecast

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Bombardier Business Aircraft | Market Forecast 2011-2030

Africa (continued)

According to the African Economic Outlook by the OECD released in June 2011, recent political events in North Africa and high food and fuel prices are likely to slow the conti- nent’s growth down to 3.7% in 2011. During this year, Sub-saharan Africa will grow faster than North Africa. From 2011 to 2030, Africa’s growth is predicted to average 4.4% per year, according to IHS Global Insight. Due to the low economic growth over the past 50 years, business aviation did not take root in Africa. The fleet in the region is relatively small, representing only 2% of the worldwide fleet. Technical support remains minimal and lack of trained pilots increases the costs of operating a business jet. However, things could begin to change due to a prosperous outlook on the horizon. Africa is now one of the world’s fastest- growing regions. South Africa held the 2010 World Cup, and its economy and infrastructure highly benefited from the event. Although taxes are high in some countries, this is not a limitation for aircraft sales. Gaps in scheduled airline service will mean growth opportunities for business aviation, but at a slow rate of penetration.

Fleet Evolution Forecast - Africa Fleet, Deliveries, Retirements; 2010-2030

90

475

80

325

950

565

320

Fleet 2010 Deliveries Retirements Fleet 2020 Deliveries Retirements Fleet 2030

Sources: Ascend, Bombardier forecast. Excludes Very Light Jet and Large Corporate Airline categories.

As the forecast business jet penetration curve shows, fleet per 100 million population is expected to grow from 37 to 80 over the next 20 years. Africa will receive 800 business jet deliveries during the 2010-2030 period, 325 aircraft between 2011 and 2020, and 475 aircraft between 2021 and 2030. The 2010 fleet of 320 business jets will grow to 950 aircraft by 2030, with a fleet growth CAGR of approximately 6%.