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Bombardier Business Aircraft | Market Forecast 2011-2030

Middle East

Business Jet Penetration Forecast - Middle East Fleet per capita vs. GDP per capita, 1960-2030

1,000

2030

2010

100

10

Fleet per 100 Million Population (Log Scale)

Actual Forecast

1960

1

100

1,000

10,000

100,000

Middle East recorded significant economic growth between 2004 and 2008, an annual 6.7% on average, largely due to high oil prices. In 2009, tight international credit, plummeting oil prices and the global economic slowdown inhibited Middle East's real GDP growth to 0.6%. 2010 saw the whole region recover gradually with a 4.1% GDP growth. Recovery was largely driven by increasing oil revenues, improving exports, and state spending, the latter made possible by finan- cial reserves accumulated by the Gulf states during the 2004-2008 prosperous period.

GDP per Capita (USD, Log Scale)

Sources: Ascend, IMF, IHS Global Insight, UN Population Project, Bombardier forecast. Includes very light jets.

In the Gulf states, oil production is expected to increase in the short term to compensate for losses in Libyan crude oil. Saudi Arabia will strongly benefit from this situation, and thus will see its economy accelerate in 2011. As well, government spending and exports will continue to bolster overall activity in the Kingdom.

The beginning of 2011 witnessed the emer- gence of political unrest in North Africa and the Middle East. The "Arab Spring" resulted in change in regimes in Tunisia and Egypt, civil war in Libya, and civil troubles in Syria, Yemen, and Bahrain. The resulting uncertainty may somewhat damp confidence in this year's economic outlook for the region.