Bombardier Flipping

the forecast

30

Bombardier Business Aircraft | Market Forecast 2011-2030

China

Business Jet Penetration Forecast - China Fleet per capita vs. GDP per capita, 1960-2030

1,000

2030

100

2010

10

China delivered a stellar performance during the Great Recession with 9.1% and 10.3% growth in 2009 and 2010. The Chinese government has been implementing measures to prevent the economy from overheating. Credit tightening should start cooling down domestic demand and price controls for the property market should limit construction activities. Given the Chinese public’s high financial savings, consumer-demand growth should remain resilient throughout the year. Traditionally driven by export markets, China is determined to accelerate its transition toward a more domestically based economy. Taking a longer term perspective, China and India are expected to lead the world’s

Fleet per 100 Million Population (Log Scale)

Actual Forecast

1960

1

100

1,000

10,000

100,000

GDP per Capita (USD, Log Scale)

Sources: Ascend, IMF, IHS Global Insight, UN Population Project, Bombardier forecast. Includes very light jets.

economy is expected to grow at 9.5% in 2011. China is expected to account for an annual average GDP growth of 7.2% for the next 20 years. Business aviation in China is at its very early stages. Over the past years, significant barriers have prevented the Chinese business jet market to grow to its potential. Restrictive

economic growth. Given China’s large population and vast physical size, strong growth could continue for several years and spread from coastal areas to inland provinces. In its 12th 5-year plan, China will continue to focus on inclusive growth, by guaranteeing housing affordability and by investing massively in rural regions. According to IHS Global Insight, China's